FRANCE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF COVID-19

The coronavirus crisis is wreaking havoc on economies worldwide. France has not been spared, and the economic consequences will be felt well into 2020 and 2021. A number of risks are emerging in France: rising unemployment, corporate defaults, rising savings, rising debt. The supply shock that hit the economy during the lockdown risks gradually becoming a damaging demand shock to the economy over the coming months. Our baseline scenario for France includes the assumption of no second wave (and therefore no further lockdown) coupled with a full easing of the lockdown by 22 June. This scenario obviously depends on how the sanitary situation evolves in France and Europe. This Special Report presents our economic scenario for France for the next two years.