French General elections: quick take after the first-round ballot

French voters went to the polls on Sunday 30 th June for the first round of the General elections. As we expected, the participation rate was very high ( estimated around 66 % vs. 46 % in 2022), confirming the key impact of this election. In line with our expectations , the far-right “ Rassemblement National” and its allies came in the first position around 34 % (slightly less than polls suggested) , according to the first estimates followed by the left-wing coalition “New Popular Front ” around 28 % , then the presidential party “Ensemble” and their allies around 2 2 %. Despite the huge number of potential triangulars at the 2 nd round (about 300), o ur central scenario of a hung Parliament with a relative majority for the far right Rassemblement National remains the most likely scenario and strengthens somewhat after the left coalition called on their candidates to withdraw in the event that they arrive in 3rd position, which is the case in around 100 electoral districts. Our second most likely scenario of an absolute majority for the far right Rassemblement National remains valid, but the bar remains high. According to the French Poll Institute I fop , the Rassemblement National would get around 24 3 to 2 7 0 seats (vs. a majority threshold at 289 seats and vs. 89 seats before the dissolution). We noticed 1) Ms Le Pen was re-elected in the first round 2) the absence of the European flag behind Marine le P en and J. Bardella during their speeches, so we should not minimize a strong anti-Brussels rhetoric if this scenario were to materialize. If a scenario with a relative majority of the left-wing coalition cannot be completely ruled out, we believe it remains unlikely. In any case, the defeat is severe for the presidential party and its allies (60 to 90 MPs according to I fop vs. 2 50 MPs in 2022).