French inflation remains stable in January (+1.5% YoY)

French inflation (CPI) stabilized at +1.5% YoY in January, but decreased on a monthly basis by -0.4%, due to the usual seasonal decline in manufactured products during the season of French sale . Overall, after a subdued CPI during 2019 (+1,1% on average) French inflation should regain some vigor, mainly pushed by slight increases in energy prices from H2 2020 onwards . Th is stable inflation is explained by an increase in energy (+0.5% MoM) and in food products (+0.4% MoM). This has been more than offset by the usual strong decrease in manufactured products (-2.2% MoM), especially in clothing and shoes (-11.2% MoM in January). Moreover, transport prices decreased by -7.3% MoM after a strong increase in December (+5.9%). Outlook : Inflation should rise slightly in 2020 at a higher level (1.4% o n average), after a weak 1.1% in 2019. This is explained by a decrease in oil prices until H1 2020 (expected at $ 57 /bbl in April 2020) before some pickup in H2 2020 , reaching $67/bbl in December 2020.