French inflation remains subdued this month (+1% YoY)

French inflation (CPI) rose from +0.8% YoY in October to + 1 % in November (+0.1% MoM) , as expected , due to a n important increase in Tabaco prices (+15.3% YoY) offset by a small decrease in manufactured products and in services (transports) . In Q4 2019, inflation is expected to slightly increase at 0.1% QoQ and to increase by +1 .1 % YoY , compared to Q3 (+0.2% QoQ and +1.0% YoY). The rise in tabaco prices (+6% MoM) is explained by the increase in the tobacco package in November 2019 implemented by the government . On the downside, we observe a slight decrease in manufactures products prices (-0.1% MoM) and in services (-0.2% MoM) and a stronger decline in transpo rt prices (-2.6%). On a year-over-year basis, energy prices have been decreasing by - 0.6% in November, while services have been rising by 1.3%. Outlook : French CPI should remain broadly unchanged in the quarters ahead , with + 0.1% QoQ in Q4 and 0% QoQ in Q1 2020. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at +1 .1 % in 2020, mainly on the back of a further decrease in oil prices in H1 2020 (expected at $58/ bbl in March 2020) and also due to the tax freeze on fuel for the whole of 2019 and low electricity and gas prices .