Natixis - From one risk to another

Report

Natixis

Emilie TETARD

From one risk to another

Editorial While the market dared a cautious rebound, recession risks resurfaced against a backdrop of disappointing macro news flow (PMI in particular), a few words from J . Powell (“there could be some pain involved”) and fears of gas rationing in Europe. The flight to quality on bonds was drastic (-20bp on Thursday on the Bund, its best session since 2011), but the European CPIs next week could once again reverse this trend and put inflation risk back in the spotlight.

23/06/2022 1 EN

Provider

Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

See profile

Analysts

Emilie TETARD

Other Reports from Natixis

Research CIB

Research CIB

Trade ideas Monthly - April/May 2025

New Publication Alert: Trade Idea Monthly!We are excited to present our new edition of the Monthly Trade Idea, where we summarize the trade ideas shared throughout the month, covering both rates and FX. This month, we have added the following new trade ideas:Long the 5Y–10Y SPGB–BTP boxLong IRISH 10/34 & DSL 7/34 vs. Short Bund 08/34Paying the 2Y5Y15Y in JPYBuy EUR/USD Call strike 1.15, RKO 1.22Stay tuned for more insights and strategies!

16h / 35m 16h / 35m 1 EN

Nordine Naam

Nordine Naam

BUY EUR/USD 3m call RKO 1.22

We have recently revised our view on the FX forecasts. We expect the EUR/USD to appreciate to 1.20 this year, compared with 1.15 initially forecast. The EUR/USD's appreciation will mainly result from the dollar's continued depreciation against most currencies due to the expected sharp deceleration in US growth and still in reaction to the continuing flows out of the US assets. Despite the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and tariff relief in some sectors, economic uncertainties will continue to dominate, weighing on US growth and assets. The euro will benefit from the dollar weakness and t...

17h / 22m 17h / 22m 1 EN

Bastien AILLET ... (+3)

Bastien AILLET
Hadrien CAMATTE
Jesus Castillo

Euro area: stronger growth than expected in Q1 2025

Euro area GDP growth exceeded e xpectation s in Q1 , rising by +0.4% Q/Q from +0.2% in Q4 24 ( Consensus at +0.2%, Natixis: +0. 3 %). GDP growth was broadly in line for the big 4 , and part of this over-performance was linked to Ireland (+3.2% Q/Q ) which recorded the highest increase in growth among EU countries . Looking into detail s : German GDP rose by 0.2% Q/Q ( after a decline of -0.2% in Q4 ) due to an increase in private consumption and investment. French GDP slightly increased by 0.1% Q / Q after -0.1% in Q4 . Italian GDP grew by 0.3% Q/Q after 0.2% in Q4,...

22h / 28m 22h / 28m 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

From one risk to another

Trade ideas Monthly - April/May 2025

BUY EUR/USD 3m call RKO 1.22

Euro area: stronger growth than expected in Q1 2025

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe