Has the fiscal stimulus been sufficient?
We compare the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and Italy. We ask two questions about the fiscal stimulus: How large has it been relative to the loss of GDP caused by the COVID crisis (compared to what was expected)? How has it supported households and companies in relative terms? The risk to long-term growth is a weakening of companies' financial situation, leading to underinvestment. We are seeing: A weak fiscal policy response to the loss of GDP in France and Spain; A significant decline in companies' earnings as well as in their investment in France, Spain and Italy in 2020; A decline in real household income in Spain and Italy. In France and Spain, it would therefore probably have been preferable to provide more support to companies.