Report
Patrick Artus

Has the public debt ratio ever been reduced through fiscal consolidation?

We look at public debt ratio trends since 1960 in the large OECD countries (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Japan, Australia). We also look at periods when the public debt ratio has fallen. In theory, this can be due to: A debt restructuring (which has not happened in these countries); Abnormally low interest rates relative to nominal growth (which includes the case where inflation is high and is not transmitted to nominal interest rates); Seignorage (inflation tax on cash holdings); A fiscal consolidation, i.e. a restrictive fiscal policy with a significant primary fiscal surplus. Which methods have most commonly been used to reduce the public debt ratio? The t able at the end summarises the results. The most used methods are: In the 1960s-1970s, seignorage and interest rates that are lower than growth rates; Since the 1990s, a primary fiscal surplus.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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