Report
Patrick Artus

How to prepare for economies’ problems after a vaccine?

Now is the time to start thinking about the economic policies to address economies’ problems after a COVID vaccine, once the worst of the health crisis is over. We will illustrate this broad question with the case of France, but the analysis applies to any country. What problems will remain after a vaccine? Some sectors will remain permanently weakened and will not recreate the jobs lost. Many wage earners will require support to change occupation if a permanent rise in structural unemployment is to be prevented; The energy transition will be rapid, leading to both destruction of capital (in fossil fuels) and a high investment need. This will also require changes in skills and co - investment between the government and companies in new activities; Corporate balance sheets will be impaired . Financial intermediation (in particular insurance) will therefore have to be reformed in order to supply more capital to companies; At some point in the future, central banks will stop monetising all fiscal deficits. These fiscal deficits will then have to be reduced, leading to a need to reform the state ( pensions in France) to be able to maintain public spending where it is needed.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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