How will per capita income evolve in China?

We calculate the trend in per capita income in China in the past , and in the future based on demographic prospects and foreseeable productivity gains. We find that per capita income (in real terms) increased at an average rate of: 3.5% per year from 2002 to 2009; 2.7% per year from 2010 to 2019. We also find that it will increase by 0.9% per year from 2023 to 2029 and by 1.4% per year from 2030 to 2050. We see the continued slowdown in Chinese per capita income growth, because of the slowdown in productivity and because the labour force is declining faster than the total population.