Report
Patrick Artus

If the ECB's objective is to ensure the solvency of all euro-zone countries, it will never be able to exit its zero or negative interest rate policy

If the ECB's objective is to ensure, through a zero or negative interest rate policy, the fiscal solvency of all euro-zone countries to prevent a break-up of the euro, it will never be able to exit this policy. Given some countries’ public debt ratio (Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Portugal, Greece) which, furthermore, is not declining in most cases, a normalisation of interest rates would lead to a loss of fiscal solvency and a debt crisis. If the ECB’s zero or negative interest rate policy becomes permanent, there may be a serious life insurance crisis and a large-scale real estate bubble in the euro zone. Preventing a public debt crisis may therefore lead to another financial crisis .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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