If the weakness of industry is due to a transfer of demand from industry to services, it cannot trigger an overall recession

Manufacturing activity is currently very weak, worldwide and in OECD countries. This often raises the question: could this weakness trigger an overall recession ? If the shock is only a weakening of manufacturing production, that is possible, as this shock also weakens services (as the income generated in industry declines, which reduces demand for services); But if the shock is a transfer of demand from industrial products to services , then, on the contrary, demand for services is strengthened, and there cannot be an overall recession . When looking at recent developments in the global economy and in OECD countries, we see that there is probably a transfer of demand - at least partial - from industry to services.