Report
Patrick Artus

If wages do not accelerate markedly at the end of an expansion period, the effects are significant: Soft landing and not recession?

At the end of expansion periods in the past, wages and unit labour costs accelerated markedly , and core inflation therefore rose. This is not the case nowadays, given the decline in employees’ bargaining power (we look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone). So we are currently not seeing the combination declining corporate profitability/rising interest rates, which was due to rapid wage growth and triggered recessions. On the contrary, we now have the combination rising corporate profitability/low interest rates, due to small wage increases, which allows us to hope for a soft landing (growth declining towards the lower level of potential growth) and not a recession.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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