Report
Patrick Artus

In reality, Germany refuses to let the euro play an international reserve currency role

A country that issues an international reserve currency must provide safe assets (generally public debt) in its currency to the rest of the world. However, Germany is doing the opposite: it is destroying its public debt with its budget surpluses and , moreover, whatever remains of its public debt is not available for non-residents because of Germany ’s private sector savings surplus. What are the consequences of Germany’s refusal, given its economic choice, to play the game of a country issuing an international reserve currency? As there is growing excess demand for German public debt, Germany's long-term interest rates are becoming zero or negative; Investors are switching into the other euro - zone public debt that is presumed to be risk-free, i.e. French government bonds; France can therefore increase its public and external debt without fearing a rise in its interest rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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