Report
Patrick Artus

Is a soft landing possible?

We look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone. A soft landing is a situation where, after a period of growth that exceeds potential growth, growth settles at potential growth (at long-term growth) and stays there without there being any recession. When we look at the past history of the United States and the euro zone, this has never happened, and when the unemployment rate has returned to the level of the structural unemployment rate, there has always been a recession. Could there be a soft landing this time? The prerequisites are as follows: Lack of inflation and no sharp rise in interest rates; No excessive debt; No fall in corporate profitability; No asset price bubble; No drastic rise in the oil price. These conditions are met, which perhaps means that there will be a soft landing this time.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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