Is an economic slowdown without a falling equity market possible?
For a n economic slowdown not to trigger a decline in the equity market (which is equity investors’ main concern currently), the following conditions must be met: The long-term interest rate must remain lower than the growth rate, despite the contraction in growth (this will be the case in OECD countries); The low level of interest rates must drive investors to switch to equities (which we have seen since the start of 2019); Despite the low unemployment level at the end of the expansion period, a small rise in unit labour costs must keep profitability strong (which is the case currently, with some concern about the case of the euro zone).