Report
Patrick Artus

Is Germany benefiting from its policy of reducing the public debt ratio?

Since the 2008-2009 crisis, Germany has conducted a very restrictive fiscal policy that has led to a rapid fall in the public debt ratio. This is a very different economic policy choice from that made in most of the other OECD countries. Is Germany benefiting from this economic policy choice? One idea could be that the reduction in the public debt makes it possible to channel savings to companies, since they are not used to finance the government. But we see that Germany's savings surplus is in reality lent to the rest of the world, which is inefficient from Germany’s viewpoint; Another idea is that the reduction in Germany's public debt and the resulting accumulation of external assets generates reserves that can later be used to increase income once population ageing has become very significant. But this idea may be questioned: The return on external assets is perhaps lower than that on the capital that could have been built up inside Germany; The fall in the public debt ratio helps keep interest rates very low in Germany, which leads to a very low return on the savings accumulated with a view to retirement and is therefore, on the contrary, negative in the prospect of population ageing. The very marked reduction in Germany's public debt ratio has perhaps no positive effect, except that it protects German public finances from a rise in interest rates in the future, due for example to a possible return of inflation.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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