RBA プレビュー：5 月会合ではタカ派姿勢を維持し、今後の決定はデータ次第としつつも、利下げ実施の見通し

RBA Monitor: Delivering hawkish cut in May emphasizing data dependency for future decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver a hawkish rate cut at the May monetary policy meeting. The good news is that the underlying CPI inflation measured by the trimmed mean softened to +2.9% YoY in Q1-25 from +3.3% YoY in Q4-24, within the 2-3% target range.Although these results are likely to justify the RBA to lower the cash rate by 25 bps at the next meeting, we expect the RBA to remain cautious in signaling further rate cuts because of several factors. Firstly, the services inflation has remained sticky after slowing to +3.7% YoY from +4.3% YoY during the same period. ...

Long Bono 01/41 vs. Short Bund 05/41

Following the recent tightening of EGB sovereign spreads, particularly with the 10Y BTP-Bund spread falling below 100 bp , the market is now assessing the potential for further tightening in the current risk environment. We have identified several factors—macroeconomic, fiscal, supply, and value at risk—that lead us to adopt a bullish stance on the 15Y Bono vs. Bund, as we believe there is still potential for additional tightening compared to BTPs or OATs. In this context, we are initiating a long position on the Bono 01/41 vs. short Bund 05/41 (entry:78 bp; target:7 0 bp; stop: 82 bp; ti...