Report
Patrick Artus

Is it a problem if the public debt falls in Germany and the Netherlands and increases in the rest of the euro zone?

In principle, the euro zone had stringent budgetary rules that were intended to prevent a divergence of fiscal policies between the member countries. But since the crisis, the public debt ratio has fallen sharply in Germany and the Netherlands, while it has risen sharply in the other countries. Is this divergence of public debt ratios a problem? We cannot see any negative externality on Germany and the Netherlands from the increase in the public debt ratio in the other countries : Germany and the Netherlands have not suffer ed from higher interest rates (on the contrary, their interest rates have fallen due to their safe-haven role) . It is well known that it is this supposed externality via interest rates that was the basis for the implementation of the euro zone's budgetary rules; The problem is that the savings generated by the fall in the public debt in Germany and the Netherlands are not used to finance public borrowing in the other countries: there is no counterbalance between the fall in the public debt ratio in Germany and the Netherlands and its rise in the other countries. The savings generated by the fall in the public debt in Germany and the Netherlands are lent to the rest of the world, and the other euro-zone countries are hit by a crowding-out effect (rise in interest rates) because of the increase in their debt ratio .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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