Report
Patrick Artus

Is public debt a problem in the euro zone currently?

The public debt ratio is high in the euro zone, and obviously especially in the euro zone excluding Germany. What mechanisms could lead to this high public debt in the euro zone being a problem? Ricardian neutrality: if economic agents expect that governments will have to lower the public debt ratio in the future, they save more and spend less, leading to a slowdown in growth . We are not seeing this appearing; The reaction of long-term interest rates: is the high public debt ratio in the euro zone driving up long-term interest rates? There is a positive link between the yield curve slope and the public debt ratio; A need for governments to reduce useful public spending to maintain fiscal solvency in a situation of high public debt ratio . There has actually been a sharp fall in "useful" public spending over the last ten years; The risk of losing fiscal solvency in the future if interest rates rise again. This would require a markedly higher 10-year interest rate than 4%, which is unlikely. Among these four risks, the most serious currently is probably cuts in the types of useful government spending that are needed to ensure fiscal solvency with a high public debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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