Report
Patrick Artus

Is public debt really a burden on future generations?

It is often claimed that when a country accumulates additional public debt today, this imposes a burden on the country’s future generations. But we have to look at this issue in more detail and we will illustrate it with data concerning France. If the public debt finances additional efficient investments (infrastructure, education, training, research, support for innovative companies), it will generate additional income in the future, and it will therefore not be a burden on future generations. If the real interest rate is higher than real growth , a higher public debt ratio requires that the primary fiscal surplus be higher in the future in order for fiscal solvency to be ensured, which is a burden on future generations. But if the real interest rate is lower than real growth, the public debt ratio always converges; a higher public debt ratio in the long term makes it possible to have a higher primary fiscal deficit, and therefore does not at all lead to a burden on future generations. All things considered, public debt is not a burden on future generations : If it finances useful, productive public spending; Or if the real interest rate is lower than real growth . In France, the first condition is not met, but the second is met at present .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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