Report
Patrick Artus

Is the cyclical downturn markedly more drastic in the euro zone than in the United States?

When comparing cyclical surveys in the United States and the euro zone, we are now seeing a markedly more drastic expected cyclical turnaround in the euro zone than in the United States. Is it reasonable to expect a more drastic decline in growth in the euro zone than in the United States? Monetary policy remains more expansionary in the euro zone; But fiscal policy is markedly more expansionary in the United States; The gap between growth and potential growth is wider in the United States, which is not positive; Wealth effects linked to falling share prices are more powerful in the United States, which is not positive either; The Italian crisis is weakening the euro zone; The euro zone is more open than the United States and more sensitive to a global slowdown. All things considered, there are three arguments in favour of a less pronounced growth slowdown in the euro zone than in the United States, and three arguments in favour of a more pronounced slowdown: this does not account for the significant gap between the growth expectations in the two regions.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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