Report
Patrick Artus

Is the euro zone’s loss of growth since the crisis due to fiscal austerity?

It is often claimed that precipitous and pointless fiscal austerity is the cause behind the euro zone’s weak growth since the crisis. But in reality, the euro zone’s loss of growth is linked to the end of capital mobility between the euro-zone countries. When Germany stopped lending its saving surpluses to the other euro-zone countries in 2010, these countries had to eliminate their external deficits, inevitably leading to a contraction in domestic demand as interest rates rose and fiscal policy became restrictive . The euro zone’s fiscal austerity is therefore a consequence and not the cause of the euro-zone crisis. To prevent the euro-zone crisis, the sudden stop ( cessation of capital flows between the euro-zone countries) would have had to be prevented, which would have been possible if the euro zone had a single debt coupled with solidarity between the countries and not country-specific debt that investors could decide to stop buying in certain cas es .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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