Report
Patrick Artus

Is the hysteresis of the 2008-2009 crisis greater in the euro zone or in the United States?

A crisis as bad as the one in 2008-2009 generates hysteresis; it can permanently affect: Employment, unemployment and the participation rate (if part of the labour force has lost its employability); Per capita capital, if investment has been lost and there have been company bankruptcies; Labour productivity, if physical or human capital is permanently lost; Public and private debt, and the savings rate if there is a "debt hangover", declining demand due to the excess debt. We seek to determine which of these different forms of hysteresis appeared in the United States or the euro zone in the wake of the 2008-2009 crisis. Hysteresis concerns primarily household behaviour in the United States, and primarily company behaviour in the euro zone. In the United States, the participation rate and employment were permanently weakened, without a rise in unemployment; in the euro zone, unemployment was permanently increased.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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