Report
Patrick Artus

Is the United States right to practice the "overheating theory"?

The "overheating theory" consists in continuing to stimulate demand in a country (through expansionary fiscal and monetary policies) when the economy has returned to the vicinity of full employment. This is clearly the policy being conducted at present in the United States. The advantages of the "overheating theory" can now be seen in the United States: slight acceleration in productivity gains, slight rise in the participation rate. But do these advantages outweigh the costs? When productivity stops accelerating and the participation rate stops ris ing , the United States will permanently have higher public and external debt, while the advantages of the overheating policies are temporary; The application of the overheating theory subsequently eliminates the capacity to conduct countercyclical economic policies since the economic policies have remained expansionary at full employment .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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