Report
Patrick Artus

Is there a risk of cumulative effects of industrial destruction?

We seek to determine whether or not the following risk exists: in countries where industry has started to contract, can a dynamics emerge where industry contracts more and more, for example because: Industrial skills disappear; Synergies between companies and between research and companies, and the industrial ecosystem , disappear; There are increasing returns to scale in industry, and its contraction makes it ineffective. If these mechanisms are present, the dynamics of industry is divergent: when it contracts, it then contracts even more. Looking at industrial production, employment in manufacturing industry and industrial trade balances, we see that, on the contrary, there is a restoring force: a worsened situation in industry leads to a subsequent improvement. A deterioration in industry is not irreversible.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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