Report
Patrick Artus

Is there a shortfall in demand or a shortfall in supply in the euro zone?

This question is actually complicated: The euro zone has excess savings over investment and low core inflation, which normally corresponds to a situation of a shortfall in demand; But the euro zone has major hiring difficulties, and therefore significant structural unemployment and shows a decline in its industrial production capacity and low productivity gains. All this normally corresponds to a situation of shortfall in supply. To reconcile these two approaches, we can emphasise the following mechanism: demand has fallen markedly, and this decline in demand has triggered a decline in supply (loss of investment and human capital). In the short term , demand will therefore have to be stimulated; but supply will also have to be stimulated to restore long-term growth.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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