Report
Is there reason to be very worried about China’s growth?
China’s future growth will be weakened by demographic and economic mechanisms: Population ageing; The shift in the capital structure towards low-productive capital; The fact that corporate modernisation is well advanced, so that the catch-up in productivity will run out of steam ; Excessive debt; The cost of the energy transition. To this must be added the effects of political interventions, in particular interventions in the functioning of dynamic private companies (competition policy, appointment of directors representing the state, control of data, profits, foreign investors, etc.). The risk is that Chinese private companies will gradually become as inefficient as state-owned enterprises, which would reinforce the slowdown in productivity.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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