Report
Patrick Artus

Is this the end of cycles in the United States?

Despite the return to a very low unemployment rate, US growth remains close to potential growth and employment continues to grow quite steadily. Could this be the beginning of the end of cycles in the United States? A t the same stage of the economic cycle in the past, there would be a recession . What accounts for the resilience of growth and the absence of a recession in the United States today? When we compare the United States’ current situation with that in 2007, we see: A high level of corporate profitability; Low interest rates, ensuring the solvency of all borrowers; No real estate bubble to burst and trigger a recession, and therefore no fall in residential construction; Expansionary fiscal policy; Real wage growth; Continued slow growth in corporate investment.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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