It is important to understand that recessions have become politically unacceptable

After the 2008-2009 crisis, the sharp rise in unemployment that it triggered and the political crises that followed in its wake, governments and central banks in OECD countries do not want another recession for fear of the social and political problems that a recession would trigger and, given the level of debt ratios, the fear of a financial crisis at least as severe as that in 2008-2009. If governments and central banks do not want there to be another recession, then: Central banks are going to be highly reluctant to move to more restrictive monetary policies; Governments are going to be ready to move to highly expansionary fiscal policies if the economy slows. It is important that growth forecasts reflect this highly probable behaviour on the part of governments and central banks .