January Employment Preview

We expect payrolls to rise 55k in January, which would be consistent with the previous two prints (50k in December and 56k in November ). A gain of this magnitude would be a continuation of decent, but unspectacular, job growth. Because the pace of job gains that is consistent with population increases is very uncertain given the slowdown in immigration, policymakers will keep a closer watch on the unemployment rate. Going forward, we see troubling signs for the labor market. Job openings data indicate that recruiting intensity continues to decline and a normalization of Beveridge Curve would imply higher unemployment in the coming months , though we think solid growth will limit job losses. The January jobs report will also incorporate the 2025 annual benchmark revisions to the establishment data . These revisions will reconcile administrative data with the establishment survey through March 2025 , with the preliminary revision estimating a decline of 911k jobs. While d ata after March 2025 will not be directly affected by the 2025 benchmark, the updated birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors to the past five years will be additional sources of revisions from April onward.