Key Energy Market Themes for 2024

In this note, we outline some of the key themes we expect to influence energy price formation through 2024, focussing on crude and global markets. Stepping away from pure fundamental analysis, we outline factors impacting market structure, participant behaviour and driving logistical bottlenecks . We expect oil markets to remain rangebound, and maintain our Nov-23 forecast for Brent to average $84.8/bbl in 2024 . With European gas prices collapsing earlier than anticipated and forwards reaching our Sum-24 forecast this week , we initiate a lower price target – we expect TTF to average €29.5/MWh in 2024, and €30.5/MWh in 2025 . In terms of key thematics, we: Cover C hina’s limited capacity to tighten energy markets in 2024 . Challeng e prevailing narratives across short-dated and long-dated gas markets . Discuss the oil market’s compounding logistical inefficiency . Explore OPEC’s inability to fully unwind production cuts in 2024 . Dig into the capacity for speculative inflows into the oil complex in a more accommodative macro environment.