LatAm: Measuring The Commodity Price Shock
Commodities prices have increased around 80% since June of 2021 on the back of the global economy recovering from the Covid shock. In fact, commodities prices have continued to increase this year, surging almost 10% year-to-date. Adjusted by the US CPI, the commodity price index (CRB) is at the highest level since 2012. We argue that the commodity shock could last several quarters. LatAm is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the commodity shock as the region is a net exporter of commodities. However, LatAm will not escape the impact of high commodity prices entirely as domestic inflations will remain high for the remainder of the year. The purpose of this note is to measure the impact of commodity prices on LatAm's growth and to rank the impact of the shock on the six major economies of the region: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.