LatAm Risks Abounding

Political risks will remain the top issue affecting the outlook of LatAm economies. Elections and new regimes present potential breaks in existing economic trends and thus new risks. Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil has bolstered his cabinet largely with pro-market advisors, assuaging market concerns over long term public financing issues. Meanwhile, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador using non-legally binding referendum, gutting spending on public service personnel, and unorthodox political rhetoric has created market anxiety. Meanwhile, Colombia looks to their private sector to generate strong economic growth after some public-sector reforms orchestrated by President Ivan Duque. Chile and Peru are both on a strong short-term trajectory but are expected to slow in 2020. Argentina, will likely experience a rebound in performance due to a revised Stand -by agreement with the IMF and more favorable agricultural production.