No surprise for the Fed

Today we are launching the first weekly rates report, which will give you a recap of the week's US and EUR rates as well as our tactical view. Please feel free to share your feedback with us by email.EUR ratesRecap of the week:  EUR yields ended the week almost unchanged.  France was in the spotlight following Fitch’s downgrade to A+, yet the market reaction was muted.  As such, front-end rates remain firmly anchored, leaving the long end as the main source of market noise.Insights of the week:  Flow in EGBs by investors type through H1-25.Tactical view: We expect 2.85% for the 10Y Bund in the...

A dovish momentum for the end of the year

Risk assets remain on a positive momentum as the Fed delivered its first rate cut of the year; equity markets are up for the 3rd consecutive week with some sector and geographical dispersion, credit spreads tightened and volatility is still depressed across the board (10-day realized vol of SPX is 5%, MOVE to its lowest since 2022). Our Risk Perception Index (NXSRRPI Index) is steady below 20%. The key market drivers remain AI momentum and hopes for a real Fed cutting cycle while recession risk remains on the back front.The FOMC meeting was the key event of the week. Our key take-aways are: i/...

経済・金融見通し 2025年９月（抜粋翻訳）