Report
Patrick Artus

Macroeconomics does not work like it used to

Four very important macroeconomic mechanisms have become very different, which should completely change the way we think about macroeconomics. In OECD countries, there is no longer any short-term link between the economic cycle and inflation ; Also in these countries, there is no longer any long-term link between money supply growth and inflation ; A depreciation of the exchange rate has become negative for growth ; An expansionary monetary policy no longer eliminates the excess savings over investment. So it has to be admitted that: We no longer have any inflation theory, in the short term or in the long term; this explains the appearance of new theories, such as Neo-Fisherism; It is rather desirable to have a strong currency, unless the objective of economic policy is purely industrial; Monetary policies are not very effective, which leads to more use of fiscal policies; Monetary policies can no longer use the inflation target since they no longer have any impact on inflation in the short or long term .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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