No respite from European gas volatility

TTF endured substantial swings i ntraday on Wednesday, with prices hitting € 140/MWh before dropping back to ~ € 100/MWh later in the session. Heightened sensitivity to any newsflow regarding key aspects of the balance remains, with comments from the Russian President that Gazprom was ready to help balance global energy markets pushing prices lower intraday. In this short note, we consider the range of demand possibilities over winter . A ssuming supply does not meaningfully ramp up in the coming months, the European gas market is tight in almost all scenarios. This explains the market’s current focus on demand destruction.