Report
Patrick Artus

Note that the US economic cycle is faster than that of the euro zone

We see that recessions in the United States start earlier and are faster than in the euro zone, and that exits from recession, economic recoveries appear faster than in the euro zone. This will certainly happen again this time around. What accounts for these faster economic cycles in the United States? Several factors: The faster price adjustment in the United States; The faster recovery in earnings, and therefore in investment, due to the faster adjustment of real wages in a recession in the United States; The weight of the US residential real estate cycle in the overall cycle; The importance of wealth effects in the United States due to the rapid reaction of asset prices to the cycle. We should therefore now expect a decline in activity and then a n economic recovery faster, earlier in the United States than in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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