Report
Patrick Artus

OECD: Under what circumstances could inflation return?

The reason why inflation has disappeared in OECD countries since the mid-1990s is that there has no longer been any situation where demand for goods and services has ex ante exceeded the supply of goods and services. For inflation to return, this situation of excess demand would have to return as well. Why has there no longer been excess demand for goods and services? Because the supply of goods and services has increased: domestic supply because of the fall in labour costs (skewing of income distribution against wage earners) and a fall in expected inflation; external supply because of the opening of trade with emerging countries; Because demand for goods and services has been weakened by the rise in the private sector savings rate, despite the rise in private sector debt, which is mainly an increase in corporate savings. This shows the developments that could bring back inflation: An upturn in the wage share of overall income (through its effect on both supply and demand for goods and services); Protectionism against emerging countries; Success for the helicopter money policy: the money transferred to households and companies would be spent (public dissaving would not be counterbalanced by private savings .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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Benito Berber
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