Rosy headline jobs data to keep Fed on pause, but not all good under the hood
On the surface, the June employment report was very strong. Payrolls were much higher than expected and there was a significant improvement in the unemployment rate. The rosier headline numbers will help to push out the expectations of a Fed cut, but under the hood, this print overall confirms are view that the softening in the labor market continues. There was very little hiring outside of the business cycle-agnostic sectors of healthcare and government. The decrease in the unemployment rate is likely a result of limited layoffs and the decrease in immigrants from the labor force. The size ...