Population ageing will stop China’s international expansion

China’s international expansion (acquisition of companies and commodity reserves ; new silk roads: Belt and Road Initiative) is linked to the situation of excess savings in China. The nature of this savings glut has changed (until 2013, the People’s Bank of China accumulated foreign exchange reserves, since 2014, other economic agents have accounted for the capital outflows), but it has enabled China to finance its international expansion. However, there is now population ageing in China and it will gain momentum: it will probably lead to a decline in national savings and to a shift to external deficits, which will put an end to China’s international expansion. The only remaining solution for China would then be to transform its foreign exchange reserves (invested in government bonds) into corporate capital or capital in infrastructures.