QE come home…

Edito … or, at least given the current news flow, “stay a little longer”. The European Commission has just drastically revised its 2019 predictions for growth (from 1.9% to 1.3%) and inflation (from 1.8% to 1.4%) downward. To that, we need to add the downward revision of the prediction for Italian growth from 1.2% to 0.2%, which has put the feasibility of the 2019 budget into question. Finally, the FED’s pause will not improve M. Draghi’s situation. So, it seems to us that the ECB will have trouble raising its rates right after Summer .