Lurking in the Shadows: The Race to be the Next Fed Chair

President Trump’s description of Jerome Powell as a “numbskull” and “loser” suggests that perhaps the President is not fully satisfied with Powell’s performance as Fed Chair and will be looking to make a change sooner rather than later. Though legal barriers may get in the way, this has led to much speculation about who will be named as successor (and when) and if a new Fed Chair will be able to remake the Fed in Trump’s image. Below we walk through the Fed’s internal governance dynamics, implications of nominating a shadow Fed Chair, and also take a look at some of the leading candidates...

Long US 2yr Cash Treasuries

As we laid out in our US Rates Forecast published last week, Chief US Economist Christopher Hodge expects the Fed to resume its easing cycle in October, cutting 25bps per meeting until reaching a terminal band of 2.75%-3.00% by mid-2026. Given this, we see a bull steepening of the US rates curve beginning in Q3 (into the October 29 FOMC meeting) with 2yr yields ending the year at 3.20% and 10s at 4.10%. Thus, we enter long 2yr Treasuries here at 3.93%, with a preliminary target of 3.50% and a stop on close over 4.07%.

印尼的機遇和挑戰：需求、國防與投資多元化（繁）