Since 2023, oil prices no longer have a countercyclical effect on oil-importing countries’ growth

In the past, the oil price more or less followed the economic cycle: it was high during periods of strong growth and low during periods of weak growth, which stabilised the economic cycle. But since 2012, the global oil market has begun to operate very differently. There has been a surge in oil production in the United States, while OPEC countries have chosen to adjust their oil production in line with the level of global oil demand. This has resulted in: A structural fall in the oil price; Especially since 2023, the disappearance of the cyclical component of the oil price, since production in OPEC countries follows global oil production.