Some pickup in French inflation in December (+1.5% YoY)

French inflation (CPI) rose from +1% YoY in November to + 1.5 % i n December (+0.4% MoM) , in line with expectations , due to a n increase in energy, services and food prices . Tobacco prices stabilized again a fter a 6% increase in November. Overall, French inflation remained subdued during 2019 with an average of 1.1% during the year. The rise in inflation is explained by an increase in all components: energy increased by 1.4% on the back of higher oil prices in December , service prices are pushed by an increase in transport prices (+5.9% MoM) and inflation in food is explained by an increase in fresh products prices (+2.5% MoM) . Outlook : We expect inflation to stabilize in 2020 at 1.1% after a 1.1% in average in 20 19 . This is explained by a decrease in oil prices until H1 2020 (expected at $ 61 / bbl in March 2020) before some pickup in H2 2020 , but to low energy prices ( electricity and gas).