Spain: Towards a Government Downfall?

The Prime Minister, embroiled in revelations regarding a corruption scandal involving one of his closest advisors , once again, sees his already tenuous parliamentary position further weakened. In this context, we examine the various options that are now available to the government, as well as to other political parties. Given the already fragile parliamentary alliance surrounding the Socialist Party, the electoral timeline leading up to 2027, and the impending commencement of the 2026 budget bill drafting procedure, it seems probable that this government will not withstand until the next general elections scheduled for July 2027. We find it more challenging to precisely determine the timing of the government's downfall, which we anticipate may occur between late 2025, should there be a failure in the budget vote, and a likely heavy defeat in the regional elections in Andalusia in June 2026.