Stagflation after the coronavirus crisis?
The risk after the end of the health crisis is the emergence of stagflation, i.e. sluggish growth and inflation, in OECD countries: The sluggish growth will probably mainly come from the decline in corporate spending (wages, investment) due to the increase in corporate debt and the long-lasting deterioration in some business sectors (automotive, air transport and aeronautics, tourism, etc.); The additional inflation will probably come from the onshoring to OECD countries of manufacturing currently carried out in emerging countries, and from wage demands in sectors of activity that have continued to operate during the health crisis (healthcare, transport, agri-food, retail, security, etc.).