The big economic questions after the COVID crisis
What economic questions will have to be answered after the COVID crisis? What are the threats and what uncertainties obscure the path for economies ? A distinction must be drawn between the short and long term : The short-term questions are: how serious is corporate debt and to what extent will there be bankruptcies? How long and how severe will the bottlenecks be (commodities, semiconductors, transport, etc.)? Will it be possible to protect the people the hardest hit by the crisis (young people, workers whose jobs have disappeared)? To what extent will the rise in income and, especially, wealth inequality caused by the crisis be accepted ? The long-term questions are: will there be lasting changes in consumption behaviour (online consumption, preference for local products)? Production behaviour (reshoring, energy transition)? Labour market behaviour (working from home)? What are the implications of these possible changes? Could inflation return and interest rates rise, triggering a debt crisis? Governments want to intervene more in the economy, but will they do so efficiently (by working together with the private sector, by eschewing dirigisme)?