The degree to which the sectors in difficulty will normalise after the COVID crisis is a key question

It is hard to know to what extent activity will normalise in the economic sectors currently in difficulty in OECD countries: hotels, restaurants, tourism; air transport and aerospace; automotive; culture and events; traditional retail; office real estate. The degree to which activity in these sectors normalises is very important. The lower the degree of normalisation: The more workers will need to change occupation and skills and the more structural unemployment will therefore rise; The more potential growth will be negatively affected by the need to reallocate labour and capital; The more corporate bankruptcies there will be in these sectors and therefore job losses, capital losses and problems for banks; The longer economic policies will have to remain expansionary.