The euro zone’s internal macroeconomic situation is good in 2019

The determinants of the euro zone’s internal macroeconomic situation (profitability, wages, energy prices and inflation, monetary and fiscal policies) are positive, and should lead to strong domestic demand (with possible substitutions between sectors, due for example to a weak level of car purchases). Euro-zone growth would therefore be weak in 2019 only if exports slowed down markedly; but US growth is likely to remain decent, Chinese growth will probably pick up again thanks to the stimulus package; a compromise is likely to be found for the trade issues. It is therefore very hard to believe in a weak growth scenario for 2019 in the euro zone. The current excessive pessimism regarding the euro zone’s situation should therefore be corrected.