Report
Patrick Artus

The extremely odd economic equilibrium in 2020

In OECD countries in 2020: GDP and production have declined significantly due to physical production constraints (lockdown, health standards); Governments have offset the entire fall in production through fiscal deficits: private economic agents' income has not fallen; Private economic agents' demand has fallen, for the same reasons as for production, but their income has not fallen: private sector savings have increased sharply; Private sector investment has also fallen : the increase in private sector savings shows a considerable private sector savings surplus; This private sector savings surplus has financed the fiscal deficit, and since this deficit has been monetised by central banks, the private sector has greatly increased its holdings of money. So we can see the odd nature of this equilibrium : governments have given money to private economic agents t o ensure that they do not incur any income loss, this money has been saved and therefore returned to the governments that gave it to them, all without any impact on production.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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